Across 1,000 simulated futures with random home prices and investment returns, the middle 80% range from renting ahead by $168k to buying ahead by $45.4k (median: renting ahead by $65.8k).
Monthly gap, year 1
$1,224/mo more to own
Owning $3,239 (PITI $2,700 + HOA + maintenance) vs $2,015 rent and insurance. The renter invests the difference, plus the down payment.
Break-even
Never in 30 years
Renting and investing stays ahead through year 30.
Housing share of income, year 1
Buy38.9%Heavy
Rent24.2%Comfortable
Of gross salary. Guideline: under 28% is comfortable.
Price-to-rent ratio
16.7 In between
$400k home ÷ $24k a year in rent. Rule of thumb: under 15 favors buying, over 20 favors renting.
Net worth over time
After-tax net worth if you sold at the end of each year, in future dollars.
BuyRent & invest
Head to head
Buy
Rent & invest
Upfront cash
$92,000down payment + $12,000 closing
$92,000into investments
Year 1, per month
Housing cost
$3,239/mo
$2,015/moincl. renter's insurance
Invested
$0/moall cash goes to the house
$1,224/mo
Housing as % of gross income
38.9%Heavy
24.2%Comfortable
Year 5, per month
Housing cost
$3,391/mo
$2,266/moincl. renter's insurance
Invested
$0/moall cash goes to the house
$1,125/mo
Housing as % of gross income
36.2%Heavy
24.2%Comfortable
Over 5 years
Housing costs paid
$198,830P&I, tax, insurance, HOA, maint.
$128,319rent + insurance
Housing as % of total earnings$530,914 gross over 5 years
37.5%Heavy
24.2%Comfortable
Monthly amounts invested
$12,714
$70,511
Tax savings from deductionsmortgage interest + property tax, invested
$12,714
—
What you end up with, after tax
Home equity after sale
$136,332after payoff, selling costs, tax
—
Investment portfolio
$14,457
$206,772
Net worth
$150,788
Ahead $206,772
Income shares use gross salary, growing at your raise rate. Guideline: housing under 28% of income is comfortable, 28–36% is stretched, over 36% is heavy.